Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
